By Rajesh Kumar Singh
CHICAGO, July 15 (Reuters) – United Airlines said on Wednesday it expected nearly $6 billion in additional fuel expense this year compared with what it estimated at the start of 2026, as a renewed surge in oil prices weighed on its third-quarter and full-year profit outlooks.
Still, the Chicago-based carrier raised the low end of its full-year profit forecast, betting strong travel demand, higher fares and capacity cuts will help it absorb the fuel shock.
It now expects 2026 adjusted earnings of $9 to $11 per share, compared with its April forecast of $7 to $11. The midpoint of the new range, at $10, compares with analysts’ average estimate of $10.46 per share, according to LSEG.
Shares of United were down about 2% in extended trading.
For the third quarter, United forecast adjusted earnings of $2.50 to $3.50 per share and an average fuel price of $3.69 per gallon. The $3 midpoint compares with analysts’ average estimate of $3.60 a share, according to LSEG.
The airline said the increase in fuel prices since the beginning of July alone had added $575 million to its expected third-quarter costs, equivalent to $1.12 per share in adjusted earnings.
Amid the volatility, United said it would start basing its earnings guidance on the most current fuel prices. Its third-quarter forecast is based on the Gulf Coast jet fuel forward curve as of July 14.
United said it would exceed the high end of both its third-quarter and full-year earnings forecasts if fuel prices returned to early July levels.
United also reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $1.99 per share, topping analysts’ estimate of $1.88, as revenue rose 16% to $17.7 billion.
PRICING POWER OFFSETS FUEL HIT
Major U.S. airlines have raised fares sharply during this year’s fuel shock, testing whether they can pass higher costs on to travelers without weakening demand.
United’s second-quarter fuel expense rose $2.3 billion, or 84%, from a year earlier. It recovered about 50% of the increase in fuel costs during the second quarter and expects to recover 80% to 90% of the current increase in the third quarter and fully offset the increase by the fourth quarter.
Revenue trends remain strong, United said, and it expects total revenue per available seat mile, a key measure of pricing power, to grow faster year-on-year in both the third and fourth quarters than the 12.1% increase posted in the second quarter.
The company said oil prices had risen about 15% since the start of July following renewed hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.
The renewed fuel surge highlights the continuing risk to airline earnings even after carriers successfully pushed through a series of fare increases during the earlier shock.
United expects fourth-quarter capacity to be lower than currently published schedules and said it was prepared to further moderate near-term flying if fuel prices remain elevated.
Demand remained strong across the business. Premium revenue rose 16% in the second quarter, basic economy and loyalty revenue each increased 11%, cargo revenue rose 23% and contracted business revenue rose 27%.
United also raised $3.7 billion in new liquidity through private bank transactions. It described the financing as insurance against geopolitical uncertainty and the possibility of an extreme spike in oil prices.
The company will discuss its financial results in a call with analysts and investors on Thursday morning.
(Reporting by Rajesh Kumar Singh; Editing by David Gaffen and David Gregorio)
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